One of my favourite weekly email newsletters in “Burning Pants”.
It always some interesting or unusual angle to present on the Finance Market and what is happening therein.
Todays edition was no different, but raises an interesting question, as to how well in the gerneral public informed.
I will leave it to you to make up your own mind, regardless that I may think the underlying demand for housing in Victoria is such that we are still approx 2,000 homes short of current demand, and it is not being built at the moment.
What do you think?
Question: How will the end of cheap global debt affect the national housing market?
This was how “burning pants” saw the response:
Six out of ten Australians believe the domestic housing market is set for a tumble – with one in three anticipating a more than 10 per cent drop in residential property prices as a result of the so-called US triggered credit crunch.
The findings either reflect a typical mass knee-jerk reaction to choppy markets or signal tough times ahead for Australian residential property.
The insight stems from a new CoreData/The Australian newspaper poll that ran over the weekend and involved more than 2,500 people.
31.9% of people expected house prices to tumble more than 10% as non-bank lenders face a tougher financing environment and RBA Governor Glen Stevens continues to reinforce the central bank’s concern over inflationary rather than deflationary forces on the economy.
More than 1 in 5 people expected to see no change in national property prices. The poll did not split responses by the likely pricing changes of residential property within individual states – but responses themselves were split by states.
It could be inferred that people in Tasmania and South Australia were the least pessimistic about the impact of the global credit crunch of property, with only 23.3% and 27.9% respectively of residents of these two states anticipating a knock-on affecting more than 10 per cent drop in property prices.
The most negative state was Victoria, where 34.6% of respondents there anticipated a more than 10% drop in residential property prices as the cost of borrowing rises.
Elsewhere, Western Australia saw 33.7% of people there respond the same, while ACT has 33.6% of individuals believing the global credit crunch will push prices down in residential real estate by more than 10%.
In capacity constrained NSW, a lesser 30.3%, felt prices would fall by more than 10% – however responses were in relation to the national outlook rather than state by state movement.
In terms of sex, females were less pessimistic than males. 33.0% of men expected the knock-on effect of the turmoil in the credit market to drive property prices down by more than 10% compared to only 25.6% of females.
Source: minipoll/The Australian n= 2,535
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William MacLean